Filter Focus February 12th
A new weekly look at one of the week’s big stories, with football journalist Will Wainewright.
Are Arsenal really out of the title race this time?
Monday’s Game podcast came hot on the heels of Arsenal’s defeats to Manchester United and Chelsea, and journalists from The Times agreed that the Gunners’ title hopes were all but over, revising their chances of Premier League glory this year down to around 5%.
It is a view with which few in football would disagree. Arsene Wenger’s men may have lasted longer in this title race than many expected but the two defeats, which left them nine points adrift of Chelsea on Sunday, have been characterised as fatal to their chances. The familiar deficiencies in Wenger’s approach – an excessive faith in youth over experience, a lack of investment and poor defending – have been trundled out for public examination once more. Calls for the head of ‘Le Professeur,’ which rise exponentially with each trophy-less season, gain traction.
However, haven’t we been here before?
One only has to go back to the start of December for the last time Arsenal were written off. Their chances were apparently ‘reeling’ after an emphatic 3-0 defeat by Chelsea left them eleven points adrift. That set the stage for an immense run of seven wins and three draws in the League before they came up short against United last week.
Such a run would have to be repeated and more for a remarkable comeback to take place. But how remarkable would it actually be? Even though last night’s results closed the gap to six points, it would still seem miraculous given the amount of coverage writing-off to Arsenal’s hopes.
But that coverage paints a misleading picture.
Despite coming up short against the top two in all four fixtures this season, Filter Focus research reveals the Gunners have fared as well as Chelsea against teams outside the top four this season, collecting 46 points. United have fared a few points better in this sense but have games against Liverpool, Chelsea and Man City to come.
The rush to write off Arsenal is an odd one. Even the bookies have reduced them to sub-outsider status of 10/1. But if they can maintain that form during the remaining twelve games of a vastly undemanding run-in, there is every chance they will end up well in the mix come May. That may be unlikely given United’s burst of form, but it is still more likely than the football media consensus would have us believe. No one should write off ‘Le Prof’ just yet.